A Mathematical and Statistical Approach for Predicting the Population Growth
- Author Abdelrahim.M.Zabadi
- Co-Author Ramiz Assaf, Mohammad Kanan
- DOI
- Country : Saudi Arabia
- Subject : Education
Keywords : Exponential growth model, Logistic growth Model, Verhulst growth equation, Jordan,
Non-linear Regression
Abstract
This study is aiming to develop a mathematical approach to predict the population of Jordan until year 2100. This approach applies the simple exponential growth model and the Verhulst logistic growth equation to predict the population of Jordan utilizing predated data from 1955 to 2016. The explicit solutions for each model are exactly derived by using mathematical techniques of differentiation and integration. A Non-Linear Regression analysis was applied through Minitab. The curve-fitting tool (cftool) of MATLAB was used. Results show that the exponential model predicted the population of Jordan to be 123.169 Million in 2100, with a growth rate of 3.27% per annum. The Logistic model predicted Jordan’s population to be 17.346 Million in 2100, with growth rate of 4.56 %. While, the Verhulst growth equation predicted the population of Jordan to be 12.157 Million in 2100, with a growth rate of 5.25%. A comparison between outputs of the three models was conducted to reveal the exponential model cannot be used, Logistic Based Models are more reasonable. This study will provide a deep insight into the population projection in Jordan, a country with limited resources, and in an area teeming with conflicts and wars. This study contributes in the existing literature by applying three population growth models to empirically examine the pattern of Jordan's population growth until the end of the current century.
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