Modelling and Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality Rates in India

Abhinav Singh

Modelling and Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality Rates in India

Keywords : Mortality forecasting; Adult Mortality; Public health; Lee-Carter methodology; Time series.


Background: For several decades, global public-health efforts have focused on the development and application of various programs to improve child survival in developing countries. By contrast, little emphasis has been placed on adult and old age mortality especially in a developing country like India.
Aims & Objectives: To check the suitability of the Lee-Carter model in the Indian context, to measure the level and trend of mortality by age and sex in India during 1996-2015 and to forecast age-specific death rates for males and females in India up to 2041.
Material & Methods: The Lee-Carter model has been used for mortality forecasting in India. The model was applied to the age-specific death rate of India by sex for aged 0-85+ years.
Results: Finding reveals that the Lee-carter model very well fit for India. Furthermore, it is noted that recently, males have a higher mortality rate than females in India. The prediction shows that male population will experience a gradual decline in mortality by 2016-2041.
Conclusion: the Lee-carter model can be used in the situation of India for estimating forecasting mortality and the result shows that male populations lived to higher risk mortality situation. This is a first study to give forecast age-specific death rate for starting age group 0-1 and 1-5 and after five year up to 85+ years. This can be useful for generating direct life table by software without using any adjustment.


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