Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Extreme Waves Forecasting - Study Region in the Moroccan Coast
- Author Hosny BAKALI
- Co-Author Ismail AOUICHE, Najat SERHIR, Mostafa BAHLOUL
- DOI 10.17605/O
- Country : Morocco
- Subject : Civil Engineering
Keywords : North Atlantic Oscillation; wave recording; extreme analysis method; hundred years return period wave; sea state
Abstract
Extreme wave height generally considered for maritime structures design is the one hundred years return period wave. It is determined by forecasting from available wave data over few decades. Research carried out since the 1990s has shown the presence of a cyclical variation in north Atlantic meteorology, this variation is correlated with the sea states. In this work, we present the significant impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the frequency and magnitudes of storms in the study area located in the Atlantic coast of northern Morocc. The NAO cyclical variation of sea states implies the variation of forecasted extreme waves obtained by statistical analysis. Consideration of the NAO in the choice of wave data is essential for a correct choice of a representative sample of sea state variation and obtaining forecasted extreme waves for a safe design of maritime structures.
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