Graduation Rates of English Learners: A Bayesian Analysis

Keywords : graduation rate, English learners, Bayesian analysis, Bayesian analysis of variance.


Abstract

The present study examined the high school graduation rate of English learners (EL) in a south-eastern U.S. state. Specifically, the study examined (a) the overall distribution of school system EL graduation rates compared to the graduation rates of all students; (b) variations in the 2017-2020 EL graduation rates; and (c) variations in 2020 EL graduation rates across school systems located in rural areas, towns, suburban areas, and cities. Analyses included 51 school systems that reported the 2020 EL graduation rate. Results showed that EL graduation rates were consistently lower than the graduation rates of all students. Non-parametric and Bayesian repeated-measures analyses of variance showed non-significant variations in 2017-2020 EL graduation rates. Non-parametric and Bayesian one-way analysis of variance showed that school systems located in rural areas had significantly higher 2020 EL graduation rates than school systems located in cities and suburban areas. These findings suggest that EL students who attend public high schools located in suburban and city areas are less likely to earn high school diplomas.

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