Forecasting the Number of International Travelers Visiting Bali during the Covid-19 Pandemic using the FBProphet Method
- Author Fitriana Hayun Anggreini
- Co-Author Karmilasari
- DOI 10.17605/O
- Country : Indonesia
- Subject : Information System Management
Keywords : Forecasting, FBProphet, Time Series, Tourism, Travelers
Abstract
Bali is one of the tourist destinations that is popular with international travelers (tourists). The number of tourist attractions in Bali also establishes a lot of jobs for the people around the tourist attractions. However, challenged with the Covid-19 pandemic, the number of travelers arrivals fell by 99.99% (source: BPS Bali). This study provides a model for forecasting the number of international travelers visiting Bali using the FBProphet method. The dataset will go through the pre-processing stage and processed by FBProphet to match the forecasting model. From this model, it will be used to forecast for 30 days and calculate the MdAPE error rate with an error metric and the result value is 0.94.
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