Exploring the Environmental Kuznet Curve Evidence from ARDL Analysis of GDP, Forest Area, and CO2 Emissions in the Philippines

Exploring the Environmental Kuznet Curve Evidence from ARDL Analysis of GDP, Forest Area, and CO2 Emissions in the Philippines

Author Vicente E. Montano
Co-Author Estrella B. Jesuro
DOI https://ww

Country : Philippines
Subject : Socio-Economic

Keywords : Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions, Forest Area Cover, Environmental Kuznet Curve (EKC), Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Philippines, UN SDG 13.

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between economic growth (GDP), forest area cover, and CO2 emission using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL 2,1) approach to analyze the short and long-term interaction among these variables. Using time series data from 1990 to 2020 from the World Bank Development Indicator, the ARDL model provides insights into the complex interplay between economic development and environmental sustainability. In the case of the Philippines, the findings reveal a significant relationship between GDP, forest cover, and CO2 emissions, with both short and long-run effects observed. Significantly, the model suggests a positive short-term association between economic growth and CO2 emissions, aligning with the early stage of the Environmental Kuznet’s Curve (EKC) and, in the long run, a negative relationship confirming the latter phase of the EKC hypothesis where pollution decline as economies mature and prioritize environmental regulations. Also, the model identifies a negative short-term impact of economic growth on forest area cover, underlining the pressure of resource consumption and land conversion in the initial stages of development. Moreover, the study presents a potential negative long-run effect of deforestation on CO2 emissions, underscoring the critical role of forests in carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation. These findings contribute to the ongoing discourse on sustainable development and environmental policy-making, emphasizing the importance of integrated approaches that balance economic growth with ecological conservation goals.

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