Effect of Oil Shocks on Economic Growth in The Republic of Congo Between 2000 and 2024: An Analysis using the ARDL Approach

Deny Yila Mabiala

Effect of Oil Shocks on Economic Growth in The Republic of Congo Between 2000 and 2024: An Analysis using the ARDL Approach

Keywords : ARDL/ECM, Republic of Congo, economic growth, oil shocks. JEL codes: E3, E31, E32, O4, O41.


Abstract

This article analyses the impact of oil stocks on economic growth in the Republic of Congo within the framework of resilient energy based on productive investment. The ARDL/ECM model shows that between 2000 and 2024, imbalances were corrected quickly, with an adjustment speed estimated at about one year. A 20 percent increase in oil prices, combined with gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) averaging 37 percent, leads to a 5.7 percent decline in GDP. This confirms the country's energy vulnerability. However, when GFCF reaches 77 percent, the effect of oil shocks becomes positive, thus serving as a buffer. Over the study period, secondary education proves to be non-significant in the long term, while institutions, although fragile, remain crucial for sustainable growth.

Download



Comments
No have any comment !
Leave a Comment